This is the twelfth time that the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has calculated the costs of election promises made by political parties. The ten participating parties also had to explain how they plan to pay for their proposals.
The outgoing government has already slashed the education budget. According to the CPB’s analysis, the VVD is the only party that wants to tighten the purse strings even further, suggesting an additional reduction of 1.5 billion euros. BBB is seeking to cut an extra 300 million euros.
Other parties’ manifestos include more modest cuts. The CDA, SGP and ChristenUnie want to increase the budget by hundreds of millions of euros, as does NSC, which is slightly more generous than the Christian parties.
“This is not a voting guide”, CPB director Pieter Hasekamp said today at the presentation of the figures. He noted that his organisation focuses on the economic implications of policy, emphasising that “there is much more to life than economics”.
Reversing budget cuts
D66 in particular wants to earmark much higher amounts for education and research. The party promises to spend 5.1 billions euros to reverse the current cuts. This would be on top of spending on innovation in healthcare and industry incentives.
GroenLinks-PvdA and Volt have similar plans, allocating three billion euros to the sector. Of the right-wing parties, JA21 is the biggest champion of science and education, carving out an extra 1.9 billion euros for academia.
It is not always easy to determine exactly how much funding higher education institutions would receive, for instance because some parties want to increase the budget for the entire education sector, which also includes primary and secondary schools.
Some proposed measures are much more clear-cut, however. For example, the VVD wants to collect a ‘slow-progress fee’ from higher education institutions. This penalty for students who take too long to graduate would save 600 million euros. The party also wants to set aside 200 million euros to pay for ‘graduation bonuses’ for students who complete their programme on schedule.
Meanwhile, the ChristenUnie wants to spend 600 million euros more on higher education and research, while also proposing a reduction in the budget for the ‘basic skills master plan’ in primary and secondary education. The party believes that this master plan is only needed for underperforming schools.
The CDA’s plans for higher education have a net zero effect on the budget. Although the party intends to increase spending on the Research and Science Fund by 300 million euros, it is also proposing budget cuts totalling the same amount. This would involve capping international enrolments and introducing ‘capacity-based funding’, which seems to be a euphemism for reducing the number of funded study places at higher education institutions.
Basic student grant
The basic student grant is also included in the education budget. D66 and GroenLinks-PvdA are earmarking an extra 600 million euros for this scheme, whereas the SGP wants to phase out support for children from high-income families. This would save 200 million euros, which the party plans to use to raise the supplementary grant.
Volt, on the other hand, wants to abolish the basic student grant for students living at home while increasing it for those who live independently. This would involve a budget shift of 500 million euros.
Human capital
Compared with previous editions, the CPB’s latest analysis has a stronger focus on the longer term. In the past, the agency’s modellers have been criticised for placing too much emphasis on short-term consequences. Previous analyses did not account for the return on investment from spending on things like education and infrastructure. Although this problem has not been fully resolved – after all, it’s impossible to know exactly how a specific budget allocation will impact the bottom line – the report also considers the effects of ‘human capital’ development through education.
This is visualised with up and down arrows. Only the VVD has a down arrow, and four parties have an up arrow: GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, Volt and JA21.
Parties can also incentivise research and innovation through companies, for instance by introducing tax breaks. Some of the proposed incentives are very specific: D66 aims to allocate extra money to healthcare research, whereas the CDA is calling for more research on small nuclear reactors. Meanwhile, JA21 is seeking to reduce spending on tax breaks.
NSC, D66 and Volt want to introduce a ‘learning budget’ to help people retrain later in life. The CDA has something similar in mind with ‘learning rights’ for MBO graduates over the age of 50.
Defence
All parties promise to increase defence spending. “It is plausible that some of the additional funding will be spent on R&D and innovation”, the CPB notes. While higher education institutions could benefit from this, the analysis does not attach concrete figures to these plans.
The CPB’s first election manifesto analysis was published in 1986, but not all parties take part in this tradition. This includes the PVV and PvdD, and the SP has also declined to participate since the previous election.