“The world is dominated by uncertainty”, states Ian Scoones, professor at the Institute of Development Studies at Sussex University. And our Western scientific way of dealing with uncertainty is often focused on risks: calculating risks, minimizing risks, avoiding risks, insuring risks.
The assumption behind this approach is that the world is generally a stable place and disasters or other forms of uncertainty are exceptions. But for large parts of the world this is not the case and in the future, uncertainty will only increase, Scoones argues. For millions of people uncertainty is already the force that shapes their lives. And we can learn something from their ways of dealing with it.
The value of trust
Scoones is a scientist working in development studies. In many countries he has observed how people deal with uncertainties that threaten their existence, whether it’s drought, heat, political turmoil, or societal unrest. Until recently, he was the lead researcher of an ERC research project on uncertainty and resilience in different countries across the globe.
SENSE
The symposium was organized by Sense, the Research School for Socio-Economic and Natural Sciences of the Environment in the Netherlands, which focuses on interdisciplinary research and PhD training.
Around sixty sustainability researchers from different Dutch universities gathered to discuss the theme Uncertainties in Sustainability.
Jampel Dell’Angelo, associate professor of the water, politics and governance course at VU and Caterina Marinetti, project coordinator and SENSE executive secretary, hosted the symposium.
At the Sense Symposium last Monday, Scoones was the keynote speaker In his latest book Navigating Uncertainty Scoones advocates for a broader approach of the complex crises of our time: financial crises, pandemics, environmental disasters, and climate change. In all of these cases solely focusing on risks doesn’t work, he argues. Instead, we should learn more from local people and communities.
Scoones studied bankers in London and New York and looked into how they avoided a total crash of the financial system during the banking crisis in 2007 and 2008. “There was an exaggerated sense of control and an exaggerated trust in algorithms”, Scoones states, “but in the end, it was the social network of traders and the mutual trust amongst them that offset the worst effects. The network of bankers operated in a very similar way to networks of livestock traders in the horn of Africa we also studied”, Scoones says.
Rely on professionals
More often, social networks play an important role in cushioning uncertainty. For people in uncertain economic situations their network is an important safety net. And networks are sources of information, for example about where to pasture your herd in times of drought in Kenya, Scoones explains.
Another key issue, Scoones and colleagues found over and over again, is relying on the knowledge of embedded professionals. Scoones mentions the example of the pandemic, in which health care professionals could often predict more accurately how severe the situation was locally than the scientific models of infection rates could.
In the future, we will be faced by many more complex problems. The modernistic, scientific risk-based approach is getting outdated and should be replaced or at least combined with the viewpoints and knowledge of people who know first-hand what they are talking about, Scoones concludes. His book gives examples from all over the globe to invigorate his point.